A historic candidacy with a fundraising advantage
Haaland, a 65-year-old Laguna Pueblo Democrat, has spent 20 months campaigning to lead New Mexico. A victory would also make her the first Pueblo citizen to govern the modern state. She has raised a record-breaking campaign fund totaling $20.5 million.
Her Republican opponent is Gregg Hull, who was mayor of Rio Rancho from 2014 to 2026. Haaland is running with state public lands commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard; Hull's running mate is state Sen. David Gallegos.
Both candidates emerged from the June 2 primaries. Haaland defeated Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, receiving 158,713 votes to his 60,619, or 72.3% of the vote. Hull won his party's nomination with 56,708 votes, or 47.0%, ahead of Doug Turner at 36.9% and Duke Rodriguez at 16.1%.
Recent surveys have put Haaland's advantage at roughly six points. Research & Polling Inc.'s October 1-9 survey for the Albuquerque Journal showed her leading 49% to 42% among 1,125 likely voters, with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. SurveyUSA's September 25-30 poll put the race at 47% to 41%, while Research & Polling's August 21-28 survey showed 49% to 43%. Earlier results varied more widely: BSP Research had Haaland ahead 41% to 24% in its July 22-August 7 poll, while a Hull-sponsored McLaughlin & Associates survey conducted July 13-15 showed a 46%-45% contest.
Donors with ties to past environmental fights
Haaland built her national reputation in part through opposition to fossil fuel development. She visited the Standing Rock protest camps and cooked tortillas for Water Protectors. As New Mexico Democratic Party chair, she moved party money out of Wells Fargo because of the bank's financial connections to the Dakota Access Pipeline. Elected to Congress in 2018, she supported the Green New Deal and won reelection after renewing a pledge not to accept fossil fuel money.
Her gubernatorial campaign has taken a different approach in the nation's second-largest oil-producing state. Oil interests have contributed tens of thousands of dollars since she entered the race. That includes at least $24,800 directly from Energy Transfer LP, the Dakota Access Pipeline's owner. Finance reports also list two Exxon contributions of $6,200 each, one during the primary and another afterward.
Energy Transfer reportedly contributed another $250,000 to Affordable NM, an independent political action committee that has spent millions attacking Hull. The company is also the exclusive fuel supplier for Project Jupiter, the AI data center being developed in southern New Mexico.
September campaign filings showed that Oracle, its executives and other people connected to Project Jupiter had given Haaland more than $100,000. Oracle and OpenAI are behind the $165 billion development.
Political blogger Joe Monahan sees a difference between how progressives have treated Haaland and how they treated Bregman, who faced criticism for seeking oil-industry donations in Texas. "I think she's been given a pass by the Democratic left," he said. In his view, voters who have long supported Haaland are reluctant to desert her for a Republican, even though she may govern less progressively than they expect.
A moratorium pledge that would not stop Jupiter
Opponents of Project Jupiter have pressed Haaland to give back the donations. She has not committed to doing so, citing the expense of campaigning. "I believe I can walk and chew gum at the same time," she said.
At a press conference, Haaland promised to impose a moratorium on new data centers on her first day in office. That would not cover Oracle's 1,400-acre project, where construction began earlier this year. In mid-October, she left a community forum after facing more questions about the contributions.
Among those confronting her was Isaac Lira, 32, who grew up in Sunland Park, about five miles east of the development. "Return the money," he demanded. He recalled hauling drinking water as a child because local wells were unreliable. Lira has questioned why Haaland would retain contributions from corporate interests she once opposed when the disputed money represents only about 1% of her total fundraising.
An Albuquerque Journal poll found that 65% of likely voters opposed large data center development and three-quarters favored a statewide moratorium. The petition asking Haaland to return the donations, however, has collected fewer than 1,000 signatures.
A separate moratorium effort is taking shape in the Legislature. State Sen. Carrie Hamblen, a Las Cruces Democrat whose district includes Project Jupiter, is working with colleagues on a proposal for the coming session to halt data center development until environmental and other protections are enacted.
Water, emissions and the permitting fight
Project Jupiter's expected groundwater use and emissions have driven opposition in the water-stressed Chihuahua Desert. The development has been projected to consume millions of gallons of groundwater and release 10.1 million tons of carbon emissions annually. The Center for Biological Diversity said the well involved in its legal challenge had supplied more than 197 million gallons for construction.
The New Mexico Supreme Court temporarily halted water pumping and an air-quality permitting process in August. On September 17, it unanimously lifted those stays and rejected petitions from the Center for Biological Diversity over an emergency water-well authorization and New Energy Economy over the air permit process. The ruling allowed construction water pumping and the air permit hearing to proceed. Other litigation remains underway.
The requested air permit concerns a proposed 2.45-gigawatt methane-powered fuel cell system from Bloom Energy that would generate electricity on-site. Initial public notices put annual greenhouse gas emissions above 10 million tons; a subsequent estimate was 8.8 million tons.
Oracle has announced further changes. On October 15, the company said a refinement to its fuel cell proposal would cut permitted greenhouse gas emissions by more than 3 million tons a year. On October 22, it said the updated energy plan would substantially lower nitrogen oxide emissions, use a negligible amount of water and supply electricity through a private microgrid. The company also sought proposals in September for 2 gigawatts of renewable energy in New Mexico.
Oracle has emphasized the project's economic benefits as well. It said that, as of October 23, Project Jupiter had awarded more than $994 million in contracts to New Mexico firms and created more than 1,200 jobs for state residents. The company projects an economic impact exceeding $13 billion for New Mexico.
Protecting an environmental legacy in an oil-funded state
At Chaco Canyon, Haaland's conservation record faces a different challenge. The Trump administration has proposed undoing restrictions on new oil and gas leasing on nearby federal lands that were established while she led the Interior Department. Retired teacher Loretta Lovato and her 91-year-old mother, Stella, are among the supporters who credit Haaland with protecting the ancestral Pueblo landscape.
As governor, Haaland would also oversee a budget deeply dependent on oil and gas. Industry windfalls supplied nearly half of the state's $10.2 billion operating budget last year. That money helps sustain universal child care, tuition-free college and guaranteed school meals, programs enacted during outgoing Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham's tenure.
New Mexico's oil output has nearly doubled in recent years. The Interior Department also approved more drilling permits under Haaland than under the previous Trump administration. Asked whether oil and gas was a necessary evil, she replied, "I think it is right now."
The state has invested its windfalls in funds now worth roughly $75 billion, with their value projected to reach $100 billion by the end of the decade. The investment council has examined energy-transition scenarios in which investment returns could make up for falling oil and gas revenue. It expects distributions of more than $42 billion over the next decade and projects that investment earnings will become the state's largest revenue source, surpassing oil and gas, by 2042.
Chief investment officer Jon Clark said the agency is preparing for climate-related financial risks, including through a dedicated position examining the effects on investments and future oil revenue. "We need to try to be investing in things that go up when oil goes down," he said. He described an unusual opportunity for the next governor to plan over the long term, but cautioned, "It is going to be a challenge."
Haaland has said she intends to carry through New Mexico's clean energy goals. "Moving our clean energy transition forward—nothing will stop us from doing that because we have goals, our clean energy goals for our state, so I want to see those through." Yet state climate officials testified in the final week before the election that New Mexico is not on track to meet its 2030 greenhouse gas reduction targets. Legislation setting out a path to net-zero emissions by 2050 also failed in the last legislative session.
