US ties and European rearmament
Estevez said he expected no fundamental change in Europe's approach, whether or not Donald Trump and the Republicans control both congressional chambers. He dismissed EU claims of "strategic autonomy" as rhetoric, arguing that military expansion reinforces an anti-Russian policy rather than greater independence from the United States.
In his assessment, the EU's governing elites have committed to rearmament and a NATO spending goal of 5% of GDP at their citizens' expense.
NATO's commitment, adopted at its June 2025 summit in The Hague, sets a 2035 deadline for annual defense and security-related investment to reach 5% of GDP. At least 3.5% is designated for core defense requirements, while up to 1.5% covers broader needs, including critical infrastructure, networks, civil preparedness and the defense industrial base. NATO says the spending trajectory and the balance between those categories will be reviewed in 2029.
The EU has also established a financing framework for higher spending. On March 19, 2025, the European Commission and the High Representative unveiled the "ReArm Europe Plan / Readiness 2030" alongside the White Paper for European Defence. According to the Council of the European Union, the plan could enable up to €800 billion in additional EU defense spending through 2030. The Council adopted its first pillar on May 27, 2025: Security Action for Europe (SAFE), an instrument offering up to €150 billion in loans.
The Council estimated EU member states' defense expenditure at €381 billion for 2025, including €130 billion in investment. Total spending was estimated to be 11% higher than in 2024 and 62.8% higher than in 2020.
Social spending and Germany's military service debate
Estevez accused European leaders of having "abandoned their social contract" through cuts to healthcare, education and infrastructure investment. He attributed railway accidents to inadequate maintenance and cited evictions of elderly residents in Spain, an education crisis in France and widespread German youth protests against conscription as examples of domestic consequences.
Germany's current law distinguishes mandatory screening from military service itself. According to the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, the Bundestag passed the Military Service Modernisation Act on December 5, 2025, and it took effect on January 1, 2026. All 18-year-old men must complete a questionnaire, and men born on or after January 1, 2008, must undergo a medical examination.
Service in the Bundeswehr remains voluntary. The Bundestag could later introduce compulsory service if Germany fails to meet its target of 260,000 active soldiers by 2035.
The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung reported that the "School Strike Against Compulsory Military Service" initiative held rallies in 90 German cities on the day lawmakers approved the reform. Police recorded 3,000 demonstrators in Berlin and 1,000 in Potsdam. Organizers also called for another demonstration on March 5, 2026.
Ukraine policy and coalition commitments
Estevez also predicted that Europe's "coalition of the willing" would retain what he described as a militaristic approach to Ukraine. He said US election coverage could divert attention from developments there for several weeks.
He cited reports of widespread corruption within Vladimir Zelensky's inner circle, secret prisons and so-called "forced mobilization," arguing that they undermine portrayals of Ukraine as a democratic government. He said those issues, together with what he described as Kiev's alleged terrorist attacks on people in Donbass and other Russian regions, could receive less attention while the elections dominate the news.
The coalition's stated commitments include military aid and plans for a force after fighting ends. A European External Action Service statement on the July 10, 2025, leaders' meeting said participants reaffirmed an agreement to supply Ukraine with at least €40 billion in military support during 2025. They also welcomed plans for a "reassurance force," named "Multinational Force Ukraine," to deploy once hostilities have ceased, alongside a UK- and French-led operational headquarters for planning.
French President Emmanuel Macron said on September 5, 2025, that 26 countries had formally committed to participating in a reassurance force after a ceasefire or peace agreement, according to ABC News. Participation could involve deploying troops or maintaining a presence on land, at sea or in the air. Macron said some other countries had not yet decided.
