Recovery continues at a slower pace
The quarterly increase followed a 1.4% expansion in the second quarter, when Mexico's role as a World Cup soccer co-host provided additional support to the rebound.
On an unadjusted basis, economic output exceeded its year-earlier level by 3.2% in the third quarter. Growth over the first nine months of 2026 totaled 1.8%.
Ahead of the release, Scotiabank Economics said in its Oct. 23 Latam Weekly that the third-quarter annual reading would represent Mexico's strongest year-over-year performance since the third quarter of 2023, even as quarterly momentum weakened.
The Oct. 30 release is Inegi's preliminary GDP estimate. The institute is scheduled to update the figures on Nov. 27, according to El Economista.
Sector gains remain uneven
Services output increased 1.1% from the second quarter, while industrial production gained 0.8%. Agriculture moved in the opposite direction, with output declining 0.4%.
Scotiabank's report offered a more detailed look at the recovery through August data. Compared with a year earlier, construction grew 7.5%, wholesale trade increased 12.1% and manufacturing expanded 3.2%.
Within manufacturing, computer equipment production climbed 12.2%. Scotiabank attributed that gain to strong global demand for technology infrastructure associated with artificial intelligence. Petroleum products manufacturing increased 21.4%, but the bank cautioned that half of manufacturing subsectors still recorded year-over-year declines in August.
Banks raise full-year forecasts
Stronger activity figures prompted upward revisions to several banks' 2026 growth forecasts, El Economista reported. Banamex now expects 2.0% growth, compared with its previous estimate of 1.4%, while Finamex raised its projection from 1.3% to 1.8%. Barclays put growth at 1.5%, and Invex's chief economist projected about 1.3%.
In its Oct. 23 report, Scotiabank Economics forecast a 1.3% expansion for 2026, followed by 1.5% in 2027 and 1.8% in 2028. Its 2026 projection had stood at just 0.6% at the beginning of the year; the report put consensus expectations at 1.4%.
Banco de México's April-June 2026 quarterly report projected growth of 1.5% this year, within a range of 1.0% to 2.0%. For 2027, it forecast 2.0%, with a range of 1.2% to 2.8%.
The central bank ended its rate-cutting cycle in May 2026. It subsequently left its benchmark interest rate at 6.50% at both its June and August meetings.
